Projected impact of colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity in Europe

Aliment Pharmacol Ther. 2008 Feb 15;27(4):366-74. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2036.2007.03575.x. Epub 2007 Nov 13.

Abstract

Background: The impact of a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity is unknown. The multispecialty needs for computerized tomographic examinations raise some doubts on the feasibility of a mass colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography.

Aim: To assess whether the number of available computerized tomographic units in Europe is adequate to cover population screening with computerized tomographic colonography.

Methods: A mathematical and a Markov model were, respectively, used to assess the number of computerized tomographic colonography procedures needed to be performed each day in the start-up and in the steady-state phases of a colorectal cancer screening programme in Europe. Such outcome was divided for the total number of computerized tomographic machines aged <10 years estimated to be present in the European hospitals.

Results: At a simulated 30% compliance, 28 760 130 European people would need to be screened by the 3482 available computerized tomographic units in a 5-year start-up period, corresponding to 6.6 CTC/CT unit/day. Assuming a 10-year repetition of computerized tomographic colonography between 50 and 80 years, the number of computerized tomographic colonography needed to be performed in the steady-state period appeared to be 4.3/CT unit/day.

Conclusions: The current radiological capacity may cover the need for a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography in a steady state. On the other hand, a substantial implementation of the current computerized tomographic capacity or a synergistic approach with other techniques seems to be necessary for the start-up period.

MeSH terms

  • Colonography, Computed Tomographic* / economics
  • Colonography, Computed Tomographic* / instrumentation
  • Colonography, Computed Tomographic* / statistics & numerical data
  • Colorectal Neoplasms / diagnostic imaging*
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Europe
  • Health Services Needs and Demand / economics
  • Health Services Needs and Demand / statistics & numerical data
  • Health Services Needs and Demand / trends*
  • Humans
  • Markov Chains
  • Mass Screening / economics
  • Mass Screening / instrumentation
  • Mass Screening / statistics & numerical data
  • Mass Screening / trends*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Tomography Scanners, X-Ray Computed / supply & distribution*