Multi-subject search correctly identifies causal connections and most causal directions in the DCM models of the Smith et al. simulation study

Abstract

Smith et al. report a large study of the accuracy of 38 search procedures for recovering effective connections in simulations of DCM models under 28 different conditions. Their results are disappointing: no method reliably finds and directs connections without large false negatives, large false positives, or both. Using multiple subject inputs, we apply a previously published search algorithm, IMaGES, and novel orientation algorithms, LOFS, in tandem to all of the simulations of DCM models described by Smith et al. (2011). We find that the procedures accurately identify effective connections in almost all of the conditions that Smith et al. simulated and, in most conditions, direct causal connections with precision greater than 90% and recall greater than 80%.