Analysis of intravenous glucose tolerance test data using parametric and nonparametric modeling: application to a population at risk for diabetes

J Diabetes Sci Technol. 2013 Jul 1;7(4):952-62. doi: 10.1177/193229681300700417.

Abstract

Background: Modeling studies of the insulin-glucose relationship have mainly utilized parametric models, most notably the minimal model (MM) of glucose disappearance. This article presents results from the comparative analysis of the parametric MM and a nonparametric Laguerre based Volterra Model (LVM) applied to the analysis of insulin modified (IM) intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) data from a clinical study of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

Methods: An IM IVGTT study was performed 8 to 10 weeks postpartum in 125 women who were diagnosed with GDM during their pregnancy [population at risk of developing diabetes (PRD)] and in 39 control women with normal pregnancies (control subjects). The measured plasma glucose and insulin from the IM IVGTT in each group were analyzed via a population analysis approach to estimate the insulin sensitivity parameter of the parametric MM. In the nonparametric LVM analysis, the glucose and insulin data were used to calculate the first-order kernel, from which a diagnostic scalar index representing the integrated effect of insulin on glucose was derived.

Results: Both the parametric MM and nonparametric LVM describe the glucose concentration data in each group with good fidelity, with an improved measured versus predicted r² value for the LVM of 0.99 versus 0.97 for the MM analysis in the PRD. However, application of the respective diagnostic indices of the two methods does result in a different classification of 20% of the individuals in the PRD.

Conclusions: It was found that the data based nonparametric LVM revealed additional insights about the manner in which infused insulin affects blood glucose concentration.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Administration, Intravenous
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical*
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / blood
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / etiology*
  • Diabetes, Gestational / blood*
  • Diabetes, Gestational / diagnosis
  • Female
  • Glucose / administration & dosage*
  • Glucose Tolerance Test / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Postpartum Period / blood
  • Prediabetic State / blood*
  • Pregnancy
  • Risk Factors

Substances

  • Glucose