Risk Prediction for Early Biliary Infection after Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Stent Placement in Malignant Biliary Obstruction

Abstract

Purpose: To establish a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of early biliary infection (EBI) after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent (PTBS) placement in malignant biliary obstruction (MBO).

Materials and methods: In this multicenter study, patients treated with PTBS for MBO were allocated to a training cohort or a validation cohort. The independent risk factors for EBI selected by multivariate analyses in the training cohort were used to develop a predictive nomogram. An artificial neural network was applied to assess the importance of these factors in predicting EBI. The predictive accuracy of this nomogram was determined by concordance index (c-index) and a calibration plot, both internally and externally.

Results: A total of 243 patients (training cohort: n = 182; validation cohort: n = 61) were included in this study. The independent risk factors were length of obstruction (odds ratio [OR], 1.061; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.013-1.111; P = .012), diabetes (OR, 5.070; 95% CI, 1.917-13.412; P = .001), location of obstruction (OR, 2.283; 95% CI, 1.012-5.149; P = .047), and previous surgical or endoscopic intervention (OR, 3.968; 95% CI, 1.709-9.217; P = .001), which were selected into the nomogram. The c-index values showed good predictive performance in the training and validation cohorts (0.792 and 0.802, respectively). The optimum cutoff value of risk was 0.25.

Conclusions: The nomogram can facilitate the early and accurate prediction of EBI in patients with MBO who underwent PTBS. Patients with high risk (> 0.25) should be administered more effective prophylactic antibiotics and undergo closer monitoring.