This study analyzed the post-high school outcomes of exited high-school students with intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder from a southwestern U.S. state. A predictive analytics approach was used to analyze these students' post-high school outcomes data, which every state is required to collect each year under U.S. special-education law. Data modeling was conducted with machine learning and logistic regression, which produced two main findings. One, the strongest significant predictors were (a) students spending at least 80% of their instructional days in general education settings and (b) graduating from high school. Two, machine learning models were consistently more accurate in predicting post-high school education or employment than were multilevel logistic regression models. This study concluded with the limitations of the data and predictive-analytic models, and the implications for researchers and state and local education professionals to utilize predictive analytics and state-level post-high school outcomes data for decision making.
Keywords: autism spectrum disorder; data use in education; intellectual disability; post-school outcomes; predictive analytics.