Multi-marker approach using C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, neutrophil CD64 index for the prognosis of sepsis in intensive care unit: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: We aimed to explore the prognostic utilities of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), neutrophil CD64 (nCD64) index, in combination or alone, in septic patients.

Methods: We retrospectively included 349 septic patients (based on Sepsis 3.0 definition). The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Cox regression model, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, reclassification analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival curves were performed to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the above parameters.

Results: CRP, nCD64 index were independent predictors of 28-day mortality for sepsis in the Cox regression model [CRP, HR 1.004 (95% CI 1.002-1.006), P < 0.001; nCD64 index, HR 1.263 (95% CI 1.187-1.345, P < 0.001]. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of CRP, PCT, nCD64 index, nCD64 index plus PCT, nCD64 index plus CRP, were 0.798 (95% CI 0.752-0.839), 0.833 (95% CI 0.790-0.871), 0.906 (95% CI 0.870-0.935), 0.910 (95% CI 0.875-0.938), 0.916 (95% CI 0.881-0.943), respectively. nCD64 plus CRP performed best in prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of the 28-day mortality risk in sepsis. The risk of 28-day mortality increased stepwise as the number of data exceeding optimal cut-off values increased.

Conclusions: nCD64 index combined with CRP was superior to CRP, PCT, nCD64 index and nCD64 index plus PCT in predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis. Multi-marker approach could improve the predictive accuracy and be beneficial for septic patients.

Keywords: C-reactive protein; Neutrophil CD64 index; Procalcitonin; Prognosis; Sepsis.