Objective: To analyze the incidence and survival rate of liver cancer cases in the entire population in the Qidong region from 1972 to 2019, so as to provide a basis for prognosis evaluation, prevention, and treatment. Methods: The observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) of 34 805 cases of liver cancer in the entire Qidong region population from 1972 to 2019 were calculated using Hakulinen's method with SURV3.01 software. Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test was used for statistical analysis. Age-standardized relative survival (ARS) was calculated using the International Cancer Survival Standard. The Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the liver cancer survival rate. Results: 1-ASR increased from 13.80% in 1972-1977 to 50.20% in 2014-2019, while 5-ASR increased from 1.27% in 1972-1977 to 27.64% in 2014-2019. The upward trend of RSR over eight periods was statistically significant (χ (2) = 3045.29, P < 0.001). Among them, male 5-ASR was 0.90%, 1.80%, 2.33%, 4.92%, 5.43%, 7.05%, 10.78%, and 27.78%, and female 5-ASR was 2.33%, 1.51%, 3.35%, 3.92%, 3.84%, 7.18%, 11.45%, and 29.84%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in RSR between males and females (χ (2) = 45.68, P < 0.001). The 5-RSR for each age group of 25-34 years old, 35-44 years old, 45-54 years old, 55-64 years old, 65-74 years old, and 75 years old were 4.92%, 5.29%, 8.17%, 11.70%, 11.63%, and 9.60%, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in RSR among different age groups (χ (2) = 501.29, P < 0.001). The AAPC in Qidong region from 1972 to 2019 for 1-ARS, 3-ASR, and 5-ARS were 5.26% (t = 12.35, P < 0.001), 8.10% (t = 15.99, P < 0.001), and 8.96 % (t = 16.06, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend was statistically significant in all cases. The AAPC of 5-ARS was 9.82% in males (t = 14.14, P < 0.001), and 8.79% in females (t = 11.48, P < 0.001), and the upward trend was statistically significant in both. The AAPC of 25-34 years old, 35-44 years old, 45-54 years old, 55-64 years old, 65-74 years old, and 75 years old were 5.37% (t = 5.26, P = 0.002), 5.22% (t = 5.66, P = 0.001), 7.20% (t = 6.88, P < 0.001), 10.00% (t = 12.58, P < 0.001), 9.96% (t = 7.34, P < 0.001) and 8.83% (t = 3.51, P = 0.013), and the upward trend was statistically significant. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of registered cases of liver cancer in the Qidong region's entire population has greatly improved, but there is still much room for improvement. Hence, constant attention should be paid to the study on preventing and treating liver cancer.
目的： 对启东地区1972-2019年全人群肝癌发病病例进行生存率分析，为预后评价及防治提供依据。 方法： 采用SURV3.01软件中Hakulinen方法一计算启东地区1972-2019年全人群肝癌发病病例34 805例的观察生存率（OSR）和相对生存率（RSR），应用Hakulinen似然比检验法进行统计学检验。采用国际癌症生存标准年龄结构计算标准化相对生存率（ARS）。用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件进行Joinpoint回归分析，计算肝癌生存率平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）。 结果： 1-ASR从1972-1977年的13.80%升至2014-2019年的50.20%，5-ASR从1972-1977年的1.27%升至2014-2019年的27.64%，8个时期的RSR上升趋势有统计学意义（χ(2) = 3 045.29，P < 0.001），其中男性5-ASR分别为0.90%、1.80%、2.33%、4.92%、5.43%、7.05%、10.78%及27.78%，女性5-ASR分别为2.33%、1.51%、3.35%、3.92%、3.84%、7.18%、11.45%及29.84%。男女性之间RSR差异有统计学意义（χ(2) = 45.68，P < 0.001)。25~34岁、35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁及75岁~，各年龄组5-RSR分别为4.92%、5.29%、8.17%、11.70%、11.63%及9.60%。各年龄组之间RSR差异有统计学意义（χ(2) = 501.29，P < 0.001）。启东地区肝癌1972-2019年1-ARS的AAPC为5.26%（t = 12.35，P < 0.001)，3-ASR的AAPC为8.10%（t = 15.99，P < 0.001），5-ARS的AAPC为8.96%（t = 16.06，P < 0.001），上升趋势均有统计学意义。5-ARS的AAPC男性为9.82% （t = 14.14，P < 0.001），女性为8.79%（t = 11.48，P < 0.001），上升趋势均有统计学意义。25~34岁、35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁及75岁~，各年龄组的AAPC分别为5.37%（t = 5.26，P = 0.002）、5.22%（t = 5.66，P = 0.001）、7.20%（t = 6.88，P < 0.001）、10.00%（t = 12.58，P < 0.001）、9.96%（t = 7.34，P < 0.001）及8.83%（t = 3.51，P = 0.013），上升趋势均有统计学意义。 结论： 启东地区全人群肝癌登记病例总体生存率有较大的提高，但尚有较大的上升空间，应当继续重视肝癌的防治研究。.
Keywords: Cancer registration; Liver cancer; Qidong; Survival; Trends.