We analyzed age structure and dynamics, spatial distribution patterns, and reproductive capabilities of four Rosa persica populations in Xinjiang, to evaluate the survival status of the species and explore the reasons behind its endangerment. The results showed that the populations had fewer individuals in the youngest (Ⅰ) and oldest (Ⅵ-Ⅷ) age classes, with a predominance of middle-aged individuals, resulting in an irregular pyramid-shaped distribution, described as "high in the middle, low on both sides". The populations were generally growing, but were susceptible to external environmental disturbances (Vpi'＞0, Pmax＞0). The mortality rate (qx) and vanish rate (Kx) peaked at age Ⅴ, leading to a sharp decline in plant abundance. The life expectancy (ex) decreased progressively with the increases of age class, reaching its lowest at age Ⅷ, which indicated minimal vitality at this stage. A time sequence analysis predicted a future dominance of individuals at age Ⅴ-Ⅷ, suggesting an aging trend. Spatially, the four populations were predominantly clumped, with the intensity of clumping ranked from highest to lowest as P4, P3, P1, and P2. P3 and P4 exhibited better reproductive capabilities than P1 and P2. There was a significant positive correlation between hundred-fruit weight and plant height and crown width, and between total seed number and crown width and hundred-fruit weight.
以4个单叶蔷薇种群为研究对象,对年龄结构与动态、空间分布类型、结实能力3个方面进行分析,评价生存状况,探讨单叶蔷薇致危机理。结果表明: 单叶蔷薇种群第Ⅰ、Ⅵ～Ⅷ龄级个体数量较少,中间龄级个体数量较多,总体呈“中间高、两侧低”的不规则金字塔型分布。虽然4个单叶蔷薇种群整体上为增长型,但易受外部环境干扰(Vpi′＞0,Pmax＞0),死亡率(qx)和消失率(Kx)均在第Ⅴ龄级时达到最大值,植株数量锐减;期望寿命(ex)随龄级增加呈递减趋势,且均在第Ⅷ龄级时出现最小值,说明在此阶段植株活力最低。时间序列分析表明,未来4个单叶蔷薇种群的第Ⅰ～Ⅳ龄级个体数量缺乏,第Ⅴ～Ⅷ龄级将占主导地位,单叶蔷薇种群在未来会趋于老龄化。种群空间分布主要为聚集类型,4个种群的聚集强度大小排布为P4＞P3＞P1＞P2。P3、P4种群植株结实能力优于P1、P2种群。百果重与株高、冠幅,种子总数量与冠幅、百果重之间呈显著正相关。.
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