Objective: To analyze the disease burden in middle-aged and elderly population aged ≥55 in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2030 and provide evidence for the development of healthy aging strategies. Methods: The years of life lost (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD), and the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) in this population from 2016 to 2022 were calculated. Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend. Bayesian age-period-cohort model and grey system model were used to predict YLL, YLD, and DALY in this population in 2030. Results: From 2016 to 2022, the crude DALY rate showed a transient fluctuation in age group 55-74 years, but a pronounced increase in age group ≥85 years. The proportions of YLL and YLD due to non-communicable diseases in all age groups was considerably higher than those due to communicable and nutritional diseases and injuries. In 2022, in all age groups, the YLL due to neoplasms (55-74 years old) and cardiovascular disease (≥75 years old) ranked first, and the YLD due to musculoskeletal disorder ranked first. By 2030, the causes of YLL and YLD ranking first in each age group would be remained, while the ranks of some causes would increase. Conclusions: The age specific characteristics of current and predicted disease burden differed in individuals aged ≥55 years. Therefore, it is necessary to allocate social and medical resources according to the disease burden pattern.
目的： 分析2016-2030年深圳市≥55岁中老年人群的疾病负担，为制定健康老龄化策略提供循证依据。 方法： 测算2016-2022年早死损失寿命年（YLL）、伤残损失寿命年（YLD）和伤残调整寿命年（DALY），采用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型检验时间趋势。综合使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型和灰色系统模型预测2030年的YLL、YLD和DALY。 结果： 2016-2022年，DALY粗率在55~74岁呈短期波动，在≥85岁显著升高；各年龄段的非传染性疾病YLL和YLD比例远大于传染性疾病/营养疾病以及伤害。2022年，各年龄段的YLL顺位第1位分别为肿瘤（55~74岁）和心血管疾病（≥75岁），YLD顺位第1位均为肌肉骨骼疾病。至2030年，各年龄组的YLL和YLD顺位第1位不变，部分疾病或伤害的负担顺位上升。 结论： 深圳市≥55岁各年龄段的疾病负担现况和预测具有不同的特点，应根据相应的疾病负担模式合理分配社会及医疗资源。.