Predictive models of post-prandial glucose response in persons with prediabetes and early onset type 2 diabetes: A pilot study

Diabetes Obes Metab. 2025 Mar;27(3):1515-1525. doi: 10.1111/dom.16160. Epub 2025 Jan 2.

Abstract

Objective: Post-prandial glucose response (PPGR) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Meal carbohydrate content is an important predictor of PPGR, but dietary interventions to mitigate PPGR are not always successful. A personalized approach, considering behaviour and habitual pattern of glucose excursions assessed by continuous glucose monitor (CGM), may be more effective.

Research design and methods: Data were collected under free-living conditions, over 2 weeks, in older adults (age 60 ± 7, BMI 33.0 ± 6.6 kg/m2), with prediabetes (n = 35) or early onset type 2 diabetes (n = 3), together with sleep and physical activity by actigraphy. We assessed the predictive value of habitual CGM glucose excursions and fasting glucose on PPGR after a research meal (hereafter MEAL-PPGR) and during an oral glucose tolerance test (hereafter OGTT-PPGR).

Results: Mean amplitude of glucose excursions (MAGE) and fasting glucose were highly predictive of all measures of OGTT-PPGR (AUC, peak, delta, mean glucose and glucose at 120 min; R2 between 0.616 and 0.786). Measures of insulin sensitivity and β-cell function (Matsuda index, HOMA-B and HOMA-IR) strengthened the prediction of fasting glucose and MAGE (R2 range 0.651 to 0.832). Similarly, MAGE and premeal glucose were also strong predictors of MEAL-PPGR (R2 range 0.546 to 0.722). Meal carbohydrates strengthened the prediction of 3 h AUC (R2 increase from 0.723 to 0.761). Neither anthropometrics, age nor habitual sleep and physical activity added to the prediction models significantly.

Conclusion: These data support a CGM-guided personalized nutrition and medicine approach to control PPGR in older individuals with prediabetes and diet and/or metformin-treated type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: carbohydrates; glucose; post‐prandial glucose response; prediabetes.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring
  • Blood Glucose* / analysis
  • Blood Glucose* / metabolism
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / blood
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / metabolism
  • Fasting / blood
  • Female
  • Glucose Tolerance Test
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pilot Projects
  • Postprandial Period* / physiology
  • Prediabetic State* / blood
  • Prediabetic State* / metabolism
  • Predictive Value of Tests

Substances

  • Blood Glucose