Rare variants and survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: analysis of a multicentre, observational cohort study with independent validation

Abstract

Background: Rare pathogenic variants in telomere-related genes are associated with poorer clinical outcomes in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to assess whether rare qualifying variants in monogenic adult-onset pulmonary fibrosis genes are associated with IPF survival. Using polygenic risk scores (PRS), we also evaluated the influence of common IPF risk variants in patients carrying the qualifying variants.

Methods: We identified qualifying variants in telomere and non-telomere genes using whole-genome sequences from individuals clinically diagnosed with IPF and enrolled in the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (PFFPR), a large multicentre, observational cohort study (March 29, 2016 to June 15, 2018, n=888). We also derived a PRS for IPF (PRS-IPF) from known common sentinel IPF variants. The primary outcome was the association between qualifying variants and survival. The secondary outcome was the association between qualifying variants and PRS-IPF. We used logistic regression models adjusted for sex, age at diagnosis, and principal components of genetic heterogeneity to examine the mutual relationship of qualifying variants and PRS-IPF. The association between qualifying variants and PRS-IPF with survival was tested using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for baseline confounders. Validation of the results was sought in data from an independent multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of IPF in the UK (PROFILE, May 17, 2010 to Sept 5, 2017, n=472), and results were meta-analysed under a fixed-effects model.

Findings: We included 888 patients from PFFPR and 472 from PROFILE, totalling 1360 participants. In the PFFPR, carriers of qualifying variants in monogenic adult-onset pulmonary fibrosis genes were associated with lower PRS-IPF (odds ratio 1·79 [95% CI 1·15-2·81]; p=0·010) and shorter survival (hazard ratio 1·53 [1·12-2·10]; p=7·33 × 10^-3). Individuals with the lowest PRS-IPF also had worse survival (1·61 [1·25-2·07]; p=1·87 × 10^-4). These findings were validated in PROFILE and the meta-analysis of the results showed a consistent direction of effect across both cohorts.

Interpretation: We found non-additive effects between qualifying variants and common risk variants in IPF survival, suggesting distinct disease subtypes and raising the possibility of using PRS to guide sequencing prioritisation. Assessing the carrier status for qualifying variants and modelling PRS-IPF promises to further contribute to predicting disease progression among patients with IPF.

Funding: Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Instituto Tecnológico y de Eenergías Renovables; Cabildo Insular de Tenerife; Fundación DISA; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US National Institutes of Health; and UK Medical Research Council.