Global risk of wildfire across timber production systems

Christopher G Bousfield; Oscar Morton; David B Lindenmayer; Adam F A Pellegrini; Matthew G Hethcoat; David P Edwards

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59272-6

Global risk of wildfire across timber production systems

Nat Commun. 2025 May 6;16(1):4204. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59272-6.

Authors

Christopher G Bousfield^{1

2}, Oscar Morton^{3

4}, David B Lindenmayer⁵, Adam F A Pellegrini^{3

4}, Matthew G Hethcoat⁶, David P Edwards^{3

4}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Plant Sciences and Centre for Global Wood Security, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. cgb48@cam.ac.uk.
² Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. cgb48@cam.ac.uk.
³ Department of Plant Sciences and Centre for Global Wood Security, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
⁴ Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
⁵ Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
⁶ Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada.

Abstract

Timber is worth $1.5 trillion US Dollars annually with demand rising, but wildfires increasingly threaten production. Plantations occupy 3% of forests globally and produce 33% of the world's timber, but a critical question is whether they are more vulnerable to stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests. We combine forest management and wildfire data to estimate that 15.7 (14.7-16.7) million hectares of natural production forests and 1.4 (1.26-1.64) million hectares of plantations suffered stand-replacing wildfires between 2015 and 2022. Using statistical matching for 17 countries representing 50% of global production and 75% of burned timber-producing forest, we find plantations in temperate regions were twice as likely to suffer stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests, including in vital timber-producing nations like China and Russia. Plantations in tropical regions showed no clear effect, with national differences ranging from 75% lower to 58% higher risk of burning. Given increasing global reliance on plantation timber, preventing wildfires through landscape-level planning, fire management, and increased plantation diversity is critical for global wood security.