Purpose: We previously developed and validated a 15-gene prognostic signature (15G score) in localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). Given its ability to differentiate aggressive and indolent disease, we sought to apply the 15G score to patients with metastatic ccRCC to evaluate its prognostic performance in this setting.
Methods: We analyzed 2,121 patients from four major metastatic ccRCC trial data sets: IMmotion 151 (IMM151), IMmotion 150 (IMM150), Javelin Renal 101 (JR101), and Checkmate 009, 010, and 025 (CM009/010/025) and assessed six treatment groups: atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, sunitinib, atezolizumab, avelumab plus axitinib, nivolumab, and everolimus. We classified patients into 15G score high or low using RNA-sequencing and a previously derived threshold. We tested the association of 15G score high with progression-free survival (PFS) in each treatment group using Cox proportional hazards with and without controlling for Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) risk group. Overall survival (OS) was also tested where these data were available.
Results: A high 15G score was associated with significantly worse PFS in four of the six treatment groups: atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, sunitinib, atezolizumab, and everolimus (hazard ratios [HRs], 1.7 [95% CI, 1.4 to 2.2], 1.7 [1.4-2.0] 2.8, [95% CI, 1.6 to 4.9], and 1.5 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2], respectively; all P < .05). Within IMM151 and CM009/010/025, where MSKCC risk stratification were available for multivariable analyses, high 15G score remained independently associated with worse PFS in atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, sunitinib, and everolimus (HR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.2 to 2.0], 1.7 [95% CI, 1.4 to 2.2], 1.6 [95% CI, 2.3], respectively; all P < .05). A 15G high score was also associated with worse OS, which was significant in everolimus and near significant in nivolumab (HR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2] and 1.4 [95% CI, 0.9 to 2.0]).
Conclusion: The 15G score was independently prognostic in metastatic ccRCC among patients receiving different systemic therapy regimens.