Importance: Medication adherence is widely emphasized in epilepsy management, with a belief that missing even single doses can trigger seizures. However, scientific evidence supporting this specific claim is limited, particularly regarding the impact of occasional missed doses rather than prolonged non-adherence.
Objective: To determine whether missing individual doses of anti-seizure medications (ASMs) increases short-term seizure risk in people with drug-resistant epilepsy.
Design: Prospective cohort study conducted over 10 months for each participant, with data collected from March 2022 through January 2023. Analysis was performed in February 2023.
Setting: Community-based study with participants recruited via emails and online services.
Participants: Adults with drug-resistant epilepsy experiencing 3 or more seizures per month, or adult caregivers of pediatric patients meeting these criteria. Participants used mobile applications to document both seizure occurrences and medication adherence.
Exposure: Daily documentation of ASM doses, with missed doses categorized as 0 (no missed doses), 1 (one missed administration period), or 2 (two missed administration periods) per day.
Main outcomes and measures: 27 participants (median age 29) were followed. The relationship between seizure occurrence and missed ASM doses was assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression models, controlling for baseline seizure risk using a 90-day moving average (the "Napkin method"). Various time windows for missed doses and analyses accounting for medication half-lives were examined.
Results: The Napkin method for seizure risk was significantly related to seizure occurrence (p<0.001). However, missed ASM doses the day prior showed no significant relationship with seizure occurrence (p = 0.68). This lack of association persisted when examining longer time windows of missed doses and when accounting for medication half-lives. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the statistical approach could detect even small effects (5% increased seizure probability) of missed medication, confirming that the negative finding was less likely due to methodology.
Conclusions and relevance: While long-term medication non-adherence remains an important concern in epilepsy management, this study found no evidence that occasionally missing ASM doses significantly increases short-term seizure risk. These findings suggest that clinicians might reasonably reassure patients that infrequent missed doses may not dramatically impact immediate seizure likelihood, though consistent medication adherence should still be encouraged.
Keywords: forecast; medication adherence; prospective; seizure.