Vaccine effects on in-hospital COVID-19 outcomes

Abstract

Here, we posit that studies comparing outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 by vaccination status are important descriptive epidemiologic studies, but contrast two groups that are not comparable with regard to causal analyses. We use the principal stratification framework to show that these studies can estimate a causal vaccine effect only for the subgroup of individuals who would be hospitalized with or without vaccination. Further, we describe the methodology for, and present sensitivity analyses of, this effect. Using this approach can change the interpretation of studies only reporting the standard analyses that condition on observed hospital admission status - that is, analyses comparing outcomes for all hospitalised COVID-19 patients by vaccination status.

Keywords: causal inference; disease progression; post-treatment variable; potential outcomes; principal stratification; vaccination.