Objective: To analyze the epidemiological patterns and temporal trends of gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China and globally, and to formulate evidence-based prevention strategies. Methods: Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, we evaluated gastric cancer incidence and mortality patterns stratified by sex, age group, geographic region and human development index (HDI). Simple linear regression and Spearman's correlation analysis assessed associations between HDI and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) or age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Temporal trends from 2002 to 2020 were described in selected regions, and projections of global gastric cancer burden by 2050 were estimated. Results: In 2022, there were estimated 969 000 new gastric cases and 660 000 deaths worldwide. The burden was higher in men than in women, with incidence peaking at ages 65-69 and mortality at 70-74. ASIR was weakly correlated with HDI (r=0.261, P＜0.001), while no significant association was found between HDI and ASMR (r=-0.005, P=0.947). China accounted for 359 000 new cases and 260 000 deaths, representing 37.0% and 39.4% of the global totals, respectively. Both ASIR (13.7/105) and ASMR (9.4/105) in China exceeded the global averages (9.2/105 and 6.1/105, respectively). Although the overall global burden is decreasing, absolute case numbers are projected to increase by 84.1% (1.78 million cases) and deaths by 91.2% (1.26 million cases) by 2050. High-HDI regions will bear greater absolute burdens, whereas low-HDI regions face steeper relative increases. In China, new cases and deaths are projected to reach 607 000 and 504 000 by 2050, rising by 69.1% and 93.8%, respectively. Conclusions: Despite a declining global trend, the burden of gastric cancer remains substantial, with notable disparities across regions, sex and age groups. Targeted strategies are urgently needed, particularly in East Asia, among males, and older populations, to mitigate the future burden.
目的： 分析中国及全球胃癌发病和死亡现况及变化趋势，为胃癌防控提供科学依据。 方法： 基于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库，按性别、年龄组、地区、人类发展指数（HDI）分层分析胃癌发病及死亡情况。采用简单线性回归和Spearman秩相关分析检验HDI与标化发病率和标化死亡率的相关性。描述2002—2020年全球部分地区胃癌发病率和死亡率变化趋势，并预测2050年全球胃癌疾病负担。 结果： 2022年，全球胃癌新发病例96.9万例，死亡66.0万例。胃癌负担男性高于女性，发病人数在65～69岁年龄组达到峰值，死亡人数在70～74岁年龄组达到峰值。HDI与标化发病率存在轻度正相关性（r=0.261，P＜0.001），与标化死亡率之间相关性无统计学意义（r=-0.005，P=0.947）。2022年中国新发胃癌35.9万例，占全球的37.0%；死亡26.0万例，占全球的39.4%。中国的标化发病率（13.7/10万）和标化死亡率（9.4/10万）均高于全球平均水平（标化发病率为9.2/10万，标化死亡率为6.1/10万）。全球胃癌疾病负担总体呈下降趋势，但预计到2050年，新发病例将增至178.4万例，死亡病例增至126.2万例，较2022年分别增加84.1%和91.2%。较高HDI地区的发病和死亡人数增长较多，较低HDI地区的相对增幅更大。2050年中国胃癌新发病例数预计增至60.7万例，死亡增至50.4万例，分别增长69.1%和93.8%。 结论： 全球胃癌疾病负担呈现下降趋势，但在不同地区、性别及年龄组间存在明显差异，东亚地区、男性和老年群体疾病负担较重，需进一步加强防控措施，减轻胃癌疾病负担。.