Innovations in reproductive medicine, Gartner Hype Cycle and Dunning-Kruger effect

Abstract

In the dynamic field of reproductive medicine, the introduction of new technologies often follows a modified Gartner Hype Cycle, characterized by initial enthusiasm, unmet inflated expectations and eventual disillusionment. This paper explores how the Dunning-Kruger effect, where individuals overestimate their knowledge and competence, contributes to the Gartner Hype Cycle in reproductive medicine. By examining the history of the endometrial scratch, the paper illustrates the negative impact of prematurely adopted innovations. The authors stress the urgent need for a more rigorous approach to designating interventions as 'innovative' and call for robust data collection and analysis evaluating their safety and effectiveness. There is a balance between the need for innovation and the imperative to protect patients from harm, while ensuring the cost-effectiveness of reproductive technologies. The paper emphasizes the importance of evidence-based practice encompassing interventions undergoing thoroughly vetted scientific research before being widely adopted. It underscores the role of regulatory bodies in overseeing the introduction of new technologies to prevent the premature implementation of unproven methods. We propose the creation of comprehensive national and international databases accessible to researchers and clinicians. These would facilitate the rapid and reliable assessment of new treatments, allowing for continuous monitoring of their safety and efficacy. This paper advocates for a cautious and measured approach to innovation, ensuring that advancements are scientifically validated and clinically beneficial.

Keywords: Dunning–Kruger effect; Evidence-based practice; Gartner Hype Cycle; IVF add-ons; Innovation; Reproductive medicine.