Histia rhodope is a defoliating pest that feeds mainly on the ornamental garden plant Bischofia polycarpa. Recently, frequent outbreaks of H. rhodope in Southern China have severely affected cityscapes and people's lives. To provide a predictive early-warning program for the spread risk of H. rhodope in China and reduce damage to B. polycarpa, we used the MaxEnt model to investigate the potentially suitable spread characteristics of H. rhodope and its host B. polycarpa under different climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitat of H. rhodope under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will reach an area of 3174.55 × 103 km2 in the 2070s, an increase of 1010 × 103 km2 from the current distribution. The potentially suitable habitat of B. polycarpa under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will reach 2618.01 × 103 km2 in the 2070s (an increase of 464 × 103 km2). The potentially suitable habitats of H. rhodope and B. polycarpa are expected to shift to higher elevations under future climate scenarios. We also identified ten key environmental factors, of which Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18) had the greatest influence on the probability of moth and host plant occurrence. Our results highlight the risk of further expansion of the potentially suitable area for H. rhodope and the important role of the host plant in this process, and provide a firm scientific basis for the monitoring and management of H. rhodope and B. polycarpa.
Keywords: MaxEnt; climate change; host plant; insect population; suitable areas.