Serum polychlorinated biphenyl levels and risk of incident chronic kidney disease: A prospective study in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort

Sijie Chai; Yutong You; Yi Guo; Xin Guan; Guorong Zhong; Zhen Yin; Yu Yin; Yuying Wen; Wenhui Li; Hui Zhao; Shengli Chen; Xi Wang; Wenhui Wang; Yu Yuan; Xiaomin Zhang; Meian He; Huan Guo; Pinpin Long; Tangchun Wu

doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126721

Serum polychlorinated biphenyl levels and risk of incident chronic kidney disease: A prospective study in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort

Environ Pollut. 2025 Jun 24:382:126721. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126721. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Sijie Chai¹, Yutong You¹, Yi Guo¹, Xin Guan¹, Guorong Zhong¹, Zhen Yin¹, Yu Yin¹, Yuying Wen¹, Wenhui Li¹, Hui Zhao¹, Shengli Chen¹, Xi Wang¹, Wenhui Wang¹, Yu Yuan¹, Xiaomin Zhang¹, Meian He¹, Huan Guo¹, Pinpin Long², Tangchun Wu³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China.
² Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China. Electronic address: longpp@hust.edu.cn.
³ Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China. Electronic address: wut@mails.tjmu.edu.cn.

PMID: 40562275
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126721

Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) exposure may impair function, but prospective evidence linking PCB exposure to chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence remains scarce. In the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort, we enrolled 1,902 CKD-free participants at baseline and measured seven serum PCB congeners (PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-101, PCB-118, PCB-138, PCB-153, and PCB-180) using gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Incident CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² and/or urine protein ≥1+ after five-year follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of individual PCB and total PCB levels with the risk of incident CKD. We further applied Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression, quantile g-computation (Qgcomp), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to assess the combined effects of PCB mixtures. During follow-up, 287 participants (15.1%) developed incident CKD. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression revealed significant dose-response relationships for PCB-28 and PCB-118, with participants in the highest tertiles experiencing 51% and 48% higher risks of incident CKD, respectively, compared to the lowest tertile. BKMR identified PCB-118 as the dominant contributor to the mixture effects (posterior inclusion probability = 0.72). Both WQS and Qgcomp analyses confirmed a significant association between combined PCB exposure and increased CKD risk, with PCB-118 and PCB-28 contributing most to the overall effect. Furthermore, LASSO regression retained only PCB-118 as a significant predictor, reinforcing its primary role. This study provides the first prospective evidence that both individual PCB congeners (PCB-28, PCB-118) and their combined exposures are associated with increased CKD risk. These findings underscore the importance of environmental monitoring and public health interventions to mitigate legacy PCB exposures.

Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; Mixture exposure; Polychlorinated biphenyls; Prospective cohort.