Global burden of diabetes in reproductive-age women (1990-2021), with projections to 2045: Systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Jingjing Huang; Jia Zheng; Xiaowen Pan; Jie Qiao; Yuanyou Wang; Peng-Fei Shan

doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112349

Global burden of diabetes in reproductive-age women (1990-2021), with projections to 2045: Systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2025 Jun 25:112349. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112349. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Jingjing Huang¹, Jia Zheng², Xiaowen Pan³, Jie Qiao¹, Yuanyou Wang¹, Peng-Fei Shan⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310009, China.
² Department of Medical Geriatrics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310009, China.
³ Department of Geriatrics, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Westlake University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006, China.
⁴ Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310009, China. Electronic address: pengfeishan@zju.edu.cn.

PMID: 40578522
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112349

Abstract

Aims: To assess the global burden of diabetes among reproductive-age women (RAW) from 1990 to 2045.

Methods: Leveraging data from the GBD 2021 study, we systematically examined the diabetes burden and associated risk factors among RAW (1990-2021), stratified by region, age group, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to forecast trends till 2045.

Results: In 2021, diabetes impacted 79.04 million RAW worldwide, with projections indicating a 2.8-fold surge to 221.17 million by 2045. The burden of diabetes among RAW was most severe in regions with low and low-middle SDI levels, ASMR and ASDR for diabetes inversely correlate with SDI. T2DM burden escalates with age, with younger cohorts experiencing faster incidence rate growth. Conversely, T1DM sees its prevalence peak shifting toward older ages, while its incidence declines as age advances. High body mass index remains the leading risk factor for T2DM (accounting for 62.88 % of deaths and 62.45 % of disability-adjusted life years), whereas non-optimal temperature affects T1DM, with climate change exacerbating heat-related risks for both.

Conclusions: The diabetes burden among RAW has increased alarmingly over the past 30 years and is projected to continue rising over the next two decades, underscoring the urgent need for decisive intervention.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus; Global Burden of Disease 2021; Reproductive-age women.