Strengthening and preserving carbon pools in terrestrial ecosystems is a critical natural strategy for climate mitigation. An accurate assessment of carbon storage and its distribution among various carbon pools is essential for a deeper understanding of the carbon cycle. In this study, we modified the InVEST (the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystems and Trade-offs) carbon module into the Arid_InVEST model by incorporating the soil inorganic carbon (SIC) storage into carbon pools, due to the considerably large proportion of SIC in arid regions. A novel framework is proposed to analyze the influence of land cover on carbon storage in arid regions. The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems over the past 30 years and projections for the next 80 years were assessed using the Arid_InVEST carbon storage module. The results indicate that: (1) Over the past 30 years, the expansion of cropland has expanded by 23.5 %, the greatest increase among all land use types. Conversely, the barren has undergone the most drastic reduction. (2) Carbon density in arid lands ranges from 122 to 31,523 g C/m2, of which soil inorganic carbon (SIC) accounts for 46.10 % of total carbon storage, with high-value carbon storage areas primarily located in forests, grassland, and cropland, while low-value areas are predominantly found in barren areas. (3) Under the four SSP-RCP scenarios, forests, barren areas, and urban areas exhibit an increasing trend, while grasslands show a decreasing trend, which results in a decreasing trend of carbon storage. LUCC will reduce carbon storage by 24.1 % under the SSP585 scenario by 2100, primarily driven by grassland degradation and urban expansion. By integrating SIC into the InVEST model, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of carbon storage dynamics in arid regions, offering a new framework for climate policy under dual carbon goals.
Keywords: Arid regions; Arid_InVEST; Carbon storage; Land use/cover change.
Copyright © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.