China's renewable energy development in the crosshairs of geopolitical risk: Impact mechanisms, heterogeneity, and policy imperatives

Boqiang Lin; Zongyou Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126317

China's renewable energy development in the crosshairs of geopolitical risk: Impact mechanisms, heterogeneity, and policy imperatives

J Environ Manage. 2025 Jun 27:390:126317. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126317. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Boqiang Lin¹, Zongyou Zhang²

Affiliations

¹ School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian, 361005, China; Advanced Interdisciplinary Research Center, City University of Macau, Macao, China. Electronic address: bqlin@xmu.edu.cn.
² School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian, 361005, China. Electronic address: zzy17773263971@163.com.

PMID: 40580862
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126317

Abstract

In recent years, the global energy landscape has undergone substantial transformations. Amid the robust growth of China's renewable energy sector, the interference of geopolitical factors has become increasingly conspicuous. Drawing on the data spanning from June 2012 to August 2024, this paper utilizes the local projections (LP) method to investigate the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the development of renewable energy (RED) in China. The research findings reveal that: (1) GPR exerts an inhibitory impact on China's RED. (2) GPR affects RED in China via channels such as green investment, the development of energy metal markets, and international oil prices. (3) The impact of GPR on China's RED demonstrates heterogeneity during periods of high and low fluctuations of GPR, with the negative effect being more pronounced when global economic is relatively active compared to relatively sluggish. Based on the principal conclusions, this paper formulates targeted policy suggestions to ensure the stable progression of China's renewable energy in a complex geopolitical environment and to realize the strategic objectives of energy transformation and sustainable development.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk; Heterogeneity effect; Local projections method; Renewable energy development.