1 Centre for Biostatistics, Division of Population Health, Health Services Research & Primary Care, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
2 NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre (MAHSC)m, Manchester, UK.
3 NIHR HealthTech Research Centre in Emergency and Acute Care, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre (MAHSC), Manchester, UK.
4 Department of Rheumatology, Boston University Chobanian and Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA.
5 Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA.