Under the background of global warming, frequent monsoon activities significantly influence global climate change, yet their impact mechanisms on non-monsoon regions remain unclear. This study analyzes the abrupt change characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the Yarkant River Basin using data from four meteorological stations from 1961 to 2019, employing Pearson correlation analysis and M-K mutation test. It further investigates the influence of monsoon circulations on the regional climate and predicts future climate trends. The results indicate: (1) The temperature (0.25 °C/10a) and precipitation (6.01 mm/10a) in the Yarkant River Basin exhibit overall increasing trends. (2) Both temperature and precipitation show distinct abrupt changes, with the mutation year identified as 1997. (3) The circulation indices exhibit substantial influences on temperature but only affect precipitation in specific seasons. The East Asian Monsoon and Arctic Oscillation (AO) show significant positive correlations with temperature, while the South Asian Monsoon and El Niño Index demonstrate significant positive correlations with winter temperature. (4) Future projections suggest continued upward trends in temperature and precipitation in the Yarkant River Basin.
Keywords: Climate change; Monsoon circulation; Pearson analysis; Yarkant River Basin.
© 2025. The Author(s).