Global burden of disease and its risk factors for adults aged 70 and older across 204 countries and territories: a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background: The global older population has been rapidly increasing in recent decades, presenting substantial economic and social challenges.

Aims: This study aims to examine the global disease burden and the associated risk factors among the population aged 70 and older across different regions.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database were used to analyze global deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and average annual percentage changes to assess disease burden and associated risk factors.

Results: In 2021, the global population aged 70 and older reached 494.4 (95%UI 482.1-508.2) million. Death and DALY rates have declined by 9.2% (95%CI 5.3-12.7) and 11.0% (95%CI 7.7-14.0) from 1990 to 2021, respectively. However, the global death rate increased to 7,062 per 100,000 population, with DALY rates rising to 125,042 per 100,000. A strong correlation exists between socio-demographic index (SDI) and DALY rates. Regions with lower SDI levels, particularly low and low-middle SDI regions, showed higher DALY rates, reaching 189,563 and 165,080 per 100,000, respectively. The leading causes of death among the older included ischemic heart disease, stroke, COVID-19, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The primary risk factors contributing to DALYs were high systolic blood pressure, air pollution, and tobacco use.

Conclusions: The global disease burden among adults aged 70 and older has shown declines in death and DALY rates, yet remains a significant challenge exacerbated by population growth, especially in less developed regions. Implementing preventive strategies that target primary risk factors early and enhancing treatment of underlying conditions are crucial.

Keywords: Aging; Causes of death; Global disease burden; Older population; Risk factors.