Bidens pilosa, a globally invasive plant species, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and agricultural production in China. To evaluate its potential expansion in China, particularly its habitat suitability under climate change, we predicted its distribution with natural distribution data and 31 environmental variables (climate, soil, topography, and human activity factors) under the MaxEnt model. Future changes in suitable habitats were simulated under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The results showed that the model exhibited high predictive accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. Temperature and precipitation were the primary influencing factors, accounting for 82.6% and 12.6% of the contribution, respectively. Currently, suitable habitats were predominantly located in southern and central-eastern China. The suitable habitats were projected to expand toward eastern and northern Tibet, particularly into ecologically fragile regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, climate change would exacerbate invasion risks.
鬼针草是一种全球性的入侵植物,对中国的生态系统和农业生产构成严重威胁。为评估其在中国的潜在扩展趋势,特别是在气候变化背景下的适生性,本研究基于其自然分布数据和31个环境变量(包括气候、土壤、地形和人类活动因素),利用MaxEnt模型进行预测,并在SSP245和SSP585气候情景下模拟未来适生区的变化。结果表明: 模型预测准确性较高(受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.89),温度和降水是鬼针草在中国潜在分布的主要影响因素,贡献率分别为82.6%和12.6%。当前适生区主要分布在中国南方和中东部,受气候变化的显著影响,未来可能向西藏东部和北部,尤其是青藏高原等生态脆弱地区扩展,加剧其入侵风险。.
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